Fırat University Journal of Health Sciences (Veterinary) |
2024, Volume 38, Number 3, Page(s) 227-233 |
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Future Predictions of Carcass Meat Prices with Box-Jenkins Models: The Case of Tokat Province |
Mehmet ÇELİK, Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN |
Fırat Üniversitesi, Veteriner Fakültesi, Hayvan Sağlığı Ekonomisi ve İşletmeciliği Ana Bilim Dalı, Elazığ, TÜRKİYE |
Keywords: Box-Jenkins, price, carcass, forecast, Tokat |
The future course of red meat prices in the livestock industry is very important for producers and consumers. Future price predictions can meet this expectation, and analysis of time series with econometric methods can be used in these predictions. This study aims to make future predictions about carcass meat prices in Tokat province using econometric methods For this purpose, the monthly prices of calf carcasses slaughtered in slaughterhouses and combined in Tokat province between 2018/6 and 2024/5 were analyzed by time series analysis, and it was aimed to predict these prices for 2025. Descriptive statistics of the data were performed, and price estimation was made by estimating the model parameters with high goodness of fit among the Box-Jenkins models. As a result of the time series analysis, the most appropriate model for beef carcass prices was determined as ARIMA (1,1,0). According to the estimation results of beef carcass prices in line with the determined ARIMA models, it is estimated that the average price of beef carcass in Turkey will reach 378.57 TL/kg in May 2025. As a result, it was concluded that time series analysis could be used to predict beef carcass prices for the future. Still, the predictions should be updated over time and can contribute to the future planning of both producers and consumers.
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